Avocados

Tues, May 26th, 2026

Dear Ole Tyme Customers:

Here is a summary of the current avocado market conditions in Mexico as we navigate tightening supply and rising field costs.

Mexico’s main crop season (Negra crop) is entering its final five to six weeks, and the number of active growers continues to decline significantly.
- Many growers are slowing or delaying harvests in anticipation of stronger late-season pricing opportunities.
As a result, field prices have increased rapidly over the past two weeks as packers compete for limited fruit availability.
- With harvest volumes continuing to decrease, overall industry inventories are expected to tighten even faster than normal.
- Markets continue to strengthen daily, creating a good opportunity to capitalize on rising conditions and adjust customer pricing accordingly to help maintain healthy profit margins.
Shippers across the industry are keeping a close eye on customers bringing in significantly heavier additional volume outside of normal projections, given the tight supply environment.
- Any significant increases above current projections will be subject to availability.
Flexibility on size and Country of Origin substitutions will be appreciated, as California fruit may be utilized to help support orders where available.

Supply Overview:

APEAM (Association of Avocado Exporting Producers and Packers of Mexico) estimates approximately 330 million pounds of fruit remain in Michoacán, with roughly 250 million pounds expected to ship to the U.S.
This equates to an estimated 36 million pounds per week, well below current U.S. consumption levels of more than 60 million pounds weekly.
California production continues to move along, but is currently contributing only 13–15 million pounds per week.

Looking Ahead:

The Flora Loca crop is expected to begin in July, with Peru ramping up around the same timeframe.
Early projections on the Flora Loca crop indicate that crop volume could be down approximately 9% year over year.
Historically, this transition period brings elevated field costs and increased market volatility.
Field costs to continue trending upward in the coming weeks.
Suppliers are working closely with their field teams to help mitigate additional increases wherever possible.
The primary focus remains on maintaining supply continuity and protecting customer programs during this volatile stretch.

If you have any questions, please reach out to your Sales Representative.

Thanks,

Ole Tyme Produce